Monsoon predictions look good for Guar…

By Oliver

As you must be well aware, guar crop has always been dependent on rainfall activity on the monsoon season in India. The months approaching the monsoon season and thereafter the rainfall activity lasting from May-November each year is the determining factor for future trend in guar prices coupled with other factors such as area of sowing, timing of rainfall etc. This time is also the most speculative and volatile time from the point of view of the pricing. In this regard the IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) released their first long range monsoon forecast for the year 2016 on 12th April 2016 at 4.00 PM Indian Time. This report brought a relief to the Indian agriculture industry as the monsoon activity for current year has been predicted to be 106% of long term average which represents an above normal rainfall for the country. It was also said that rainfall distribution will be fairly even. So we can expect good rain in all guar growing regions. A more precise regional report will be released by the IMD in the next month. Irrespective of good rains in the current year, we expect the guar production to decline due to anticipated reduction in guar sowing, owing to extremely low prices. This cannot be confirmed, as we still have some time on hand before the sowing actually begins.